vault backup: 2026-04-07 17:18:46

timestamped/2026-04-07_07-21-00.md

@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
 ---
 # 2026-04-07 07:21:00
 
-> [!quote] [[how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management#Conflating Uncertainty with Knowing Nothing]]
+> [!quote] [[hubbard_2025_project-management#Conflating Uncertainty with Knowing Nothing]]
 > Some objections to providing probability estimates
 > seem to be based on the presumption
 > that if they don't know something exactly, they know nothing.
@@ -27,11 +27,13 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
 > as opposed to whatever range represents their uncertainty,
 > however wide that range may be.
 
+I would not be surprised to hear of an estimator responding this way
+even after Hubbard's calibration.
 Hubbard repeatedly conflates estimates of uncertain events
 with personal estimates of trivia questions with certain answers.
 These are functionally identical,
 but _feel_ very different.
-Hubbard could do better to correct this bias.
+Hubbard could do better to address this bias.
 
 If you don't know the answer offhand,
 imagine it has been lost to time.