vault backup: 2026-04-07 07:52:52

2026-04-07 07:52:52 -04:00
parent c62446ee31
commit a840d436ac
1 changed files with 37 additions and 0 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+---
+id: 2026-04-07T07:21:00-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-04-07 07:21:00
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+daily: "[[2026-04-07]]"
+date-created: 2026-04-07T07:21:00-04:00
+dg-publish: true
+monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-04-07 07:21:00
+
+> [!quote] [[how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management#Conflating Uncertainty with Knowing Nothing]]
+> Some objections to providing probability estimates
+> seem to be based on the presumption
+> that if they don't know something exactly, they know nothing.
+> For example, a person might state something like,
+> "I cannot estimate a 90% CI for that because I have no idea what that could be."
+> They respond as if someone were still asking for some unreasonable precision
+> as opposed to whatever range represents their uncertainty,
+> however wide that range may be.
+
+Hubbard repeatedly conflates estimates of uncertain events
+with personal estimates of trivia questions with certain answers.
+These are functionally identical,
+but _feel_ very different.
+Hubbard could do better to correct this bias.
+
+If you don't know the answer offhand,
+imagine it has been lost to time.