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fooled-by-randomness.md

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+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+title: _Fooled by Randomness_
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/complete
+  - topic/risk
+  - type/media-commentary
+---
+# _Fooled by Randomness_
+
+This is the commentary companion to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]].
+
+## Critiques
+
+### "Logic Without Statistics"
+
+FbR uses few citations,
+relying on the strength of Taleb's logic alone, by his own stating.
+
+Taleb argues this strategy is perfectly legitimate, which is _true_,
+but it does not follow that it makes for the most robust argument.
+In recent editions of the text, Taleb claims that his editors have implored him
+to provide figures, graphs, studies, etc. as---_he agrees_---would be expected
+for any similar book on statistical phenomena, but he refuses.
+
+I don't find this approach charming at all,
+especially considering how critical Taleb is of demagogues.
+
+Juxtaposing FbR with [[hubbard_2020_failure]],
+which is a more traditional work of statistical thought,
+well researched, and with a thorough bibliography,
+Taleb's arguments are considerably less satisfying.
+When Hubbard is wrong, it's clear his interpretation is flawed in that instance,
+when _Taleb_ is wrong, I question the foundation of all his arguments.
+Less politely, I wonder why I'm listening to him just make up justifications
+for what he already believed.
+
+### Qualitative Probability
+
+Taleb loses me in the introduction
+when he states that he defines _probability_ qualitatively.
+
+[[hubbard_2020_failure]] gives a comprehensive history
+of the terms **uncertainty**, **probability**, and **risk**,
+
+Later it's clear he what he means by probability is **uncertainty**.