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+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-02-03
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/daily
+dg-publish: true
+---
+# 2026-02-03
+
+## 2026-02-03 08:34
+
+Drawings bookmark colors
+
+- Lighting: Yellow
+- Power: Green
+- Riser/One-Line: Light Blue
+
+## 2026-02-03 15:04
+
+It is possible, even common,
+to be _confident_ in an _uncertain_ estimate.
+Confidence is a measure of the potential for an estimate to vary from reality,
+but an estimate can (and _should_ where possible)
+include respect for uncertainty.
+
+## 2026-02-03 16:17
+
+Valued in [[pdi-estimating#Construction Estimating (ConEst)|ConEst]] estimators:
+* **consistency**
+* **humility** --- willingness to say "I don't know that, please teach me"
@@ -6,5 +6,24 @@ tags: []
 ---
 # _How to Measure Anything in Project Management_

-> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=112&selection=40,0,41,60]]
+> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=112&selection=40,0,41,60|Chapter 4, "Exploration vs. Exploitation"]]
 > The analogy of this to project planning is that we can keep trying to design better solutions to a problem before we commit to it.
+
+## Project Options
+
+> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=117|Chapter 4, "Choosing How to Run the Project"]]
+> When a project is proposed for budget approval, planners must include a list of additions and reductions... If the project runs out of budget, then deliverables will be removed from the scope.
+
+This is different from alternates,
+which are only considered at the time of award.
+
+## Value of Information
+
+[[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=118|Chapter 4, "How Models Indicate What to Measure"]]
+
+[Expected value of sample information](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value_of_sample_information)
+
+## Estimating Impact under Uncertainty
+
+> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=170&selection=40,20,46,58|Chapter 5, "Simple Tools for Measuring Uncertainty and Risk"]]
+> There is such a rule, and it is called the "record-breaking probability." It is simply $1/(1+n)$ where $n$ is the number of observations resulting in the various outcomes.