44 lines
1.0 KiB
Markdown
44 lines
1.0 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: 2026-04-08T07:42:17-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-04-08 07:42:17
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-04-08T07:42:17-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-04-08]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-04-08 07:42:17
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## _HTMAiPM_ Reference Class Forecasting (RCF)
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[[hubbard_2025_project-management#Top-down Estimations Reference Class Forecasting]]
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%%
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blockquote syntax below is use to indicate paraphrased quotes.
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standard paragraphs are my extrapolation.
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%%
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***
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RCF can avoid potentially faulty scaling
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(square foot area, number of dwelling/sleeping units)
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***
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> If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias)
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> then neither is project manager experience.
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***
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> A **loss exceedance curve** can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty.
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> Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods
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> sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example.
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