vault backup: 2026-04-09 10:52:03

2026-04-09 10:52:03 -04:00
parent 712896b79c
commit 4ef534c99f
10 changed files with 256 additions and 7 deletions
@@ -42,6 +42,7 @@
  "isLeftHanded": false,
  "desktopUIMode": "full",
  "tabletUIMode": "compact",
+  "phoneUIMode": "mobile",
  "iframeMatchExcalidrawTheme": true,
  "matchTheme": true,
  "matchThemeAlways": true,
@@ -112,7 +113,7 @@
  "library2": {
    "type": "excalidrawlib",
    "version": 2,
-    "source": "https://github.com/zsviczian/obsidian-excalidraw-plugin/releases/tag/2.20.2",
+    "source": "https://github.com/zsviczian/obsidian-excalidraw-plugin/releases/tag/2.21.2",
    "libraryItems": []
  },
  "imageElementNotice": true,
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+title: 1000 Virginia
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - occupational/project
+  - status/incomplete
+---
+# 1000 Virginia
+
+Project Status: Warranty
+Region: DIV-4 Dan Bacon
+Building Type: High Rise
+Contract Type: Design Build
+Units: 454
+Square Feet: 545,051
+Start Date: 02/09/2021
+End Date: 12/05/2023
+Contract Amount: $19,852,516
+
+1000 Virginia Ave Seattle, WA 98109
+
+
@@ -17,3 +17,5 @@ Real example of [[location-vs-scope]]:
 Project is two buildings: Residential and Hotel,
 entirely separate physically and electrically.
 Generators for both are located on a lower roof of Residential.
+
+![[location-vs-scope_2.excalidraw]]
@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ and are thus a different class entirely
 from those I'm most familiar with.
 I choose to criticize decomposition generally despite this
 because the distinction is rarely acknowledged by its advocates
-so "decomposition = good" pervades the estimating zeitgeist completely
+so "decomposition = good" pervades the estimating zeitgeist completely,
 and I get baffled, horrified, or patronizing looks when I suggest
 that complete quantity takeoff may not be more accurate
 than a parametric budget that could be completed in a day.
@@ -17,13 +17,27 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
 ---
 # 2026-04-08 07:42:17

+## _HTMAiPM_ Reference Class Forecasting (RCF)
+
 [[hubbard_2025_project-management#Top-down Estimations Reference Class Forecasting]]

-If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias)
-then neither is project manager experience.
+%%
+blockquote syntax below is use to indicate paraphrased quotes.
+standard paragraphs are my extrapolation.
+%%

 ***

-A **loss exceedance curve** can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty.
-Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods
-sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example.
+RCF can avoid potentially faulty scaling
+(square foot area, number of dwelling/sleeping units)
+
+***
+
+> If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias)
+> then neither is project manager experience.
+
+***
+
+> A **loss exceedance curve** can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty.
+> Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods
+> sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example.
@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+---
+id: 2026-04-08T11:53:07-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-04-08 11:53:07
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-04-08T11:53:07-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-04-08]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-04-08 11:53:07
+
+## NFM Lending Lunch & Learn
+
+"The Cost of Waiting: Building Wealth through Homeownership"
+
+NFM Lending,
+"The Jane Floyd Team"
+
+### NFM Lending Power Design Incentive
+
+\$2,000 credit to closing cost
+
+Good year for buying?
+
+### Components of Preapproval
+
+* Credit
+* Income
+* Assets
+
+#### Credit
+
+> [!info] Credit Bureaus
+> * Experian
+> * Equifax
+> * Transunion
+
+Minimum 580 for FHA, VA
+
+Minimum 620 for conventional
+(assumes a large down payment)
+
+> [!info] Score Drivers
+> * Pay history
+> * Credit utilization
+> * Past Derogatories
+
+#### Income
+
+Bonus, commission, overtime
+2-year history with letter from employer
+stating likely to continue
+
+#### Assets
+
+##### Traditional
+
+Savings
+
+401k personal loans
+
+Gift funds - documentation required
+sent directly to title company
+
+##### Sourcing and Seasoning
+
+Bank deposits
+cash is never an option
+deposits need to be sourced (documented)
+large undocumented deposits need to be seasoned for two months
+
+### Assistance Programs
+
+* 1st time home buyer programs: Statewide, county
+
+### Personal Family Budget
+
+* Nerd Wallet
+* WalletHub
+
+### Rent vs. Own
+
+Mortgage Coach
+
+### Cost of Waiting
+
+If interest rates decrease
+payment decreases marginally,
+but you lose out on equity
+
+better to buy now and refinance when rates decrease.
+
+> 1% rate decrease $\approx$ \$10,000 value appreciation
+
+### "Escrow"
+
+Escrow account with title company
+"opening escrow"
+
+separate from escrow account with lender for taxes, insurance, etc.
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+---
+id: 2026-04-08T13:53:59-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-04-08 13:53:59
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+daily: "[[2026-04-08]]"
+date-created: 2026-04-08T13:53:59-04:00
+dg-publish: true
+monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-04-08 13:53:59
+
+> [!quote] [[hubbard_2025_project-management#Conflating Uncertainty with Knowing Nothing]] (text decoration added)
+> An assumption is a statement we treat as true for the sake of argument, regardless of whether it is true.
+> Assumptions are necessary if you have to use deterministic accounting methods with exact points as values.
+> ==You rarely, if ever, know an exact point with certainty,==
+> ==so any such value must be an assumption.==
+
+Assumptions are frowned upon in [[construction-estimating]],
+but they are only made necessary by the insistence on exact values.
@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+---
+id: 2026-04-08T16:17:27-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-04-08 16:17:27
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-04-08T16:17:27-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-04-08]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-04-08 16:17:27
+
+Relevant to [[location-vs-scope]] philosophy
+for [[virginia-live-casino-and-hotel]]:
+
+Panels exclusively serving loads in Food & Beverage (FB) areas,
+which are broken out separately from the larger Casino area,
+are located in the Casino area.
+
+Discussing with [[joel-jansen]],
+he told me to use my best judgement.
+I told him that _my_ intuition,
+trained from my time estimating for Ace,
+is to break down by **scope**,
+but that [[conest]] usually breaks down by **location**.
+He agreed that is the preference,
+and since the previous estimator's breakdowns
+did not include Building Areas for the FB zones anyway
+I should put the panels in Casino.
+
+It is worth noting that he was on his way out the door.
@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+---
+id: 2026-04-09T09:10:26-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-04-09 09:10:26
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-04-09T09:10:26-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-04-09]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-04-09 09:10:26
+
+## 1000 Virginia GP Variance
+
+[[1000-virginia]] closed $2,950,096 behind target GP.
+At 14.86% of contract value,
+it's possible that this variance represents a loss.
+
+Data grabbed from The Hub last year before I lost access
+has both sale price and cost at exactly $19,906,645.23.
+
+> [!aside]
+> Obviously this is doctored,
+> which is immensely frustrating,
+> but irrelevant to this note.
+
+I do not believe that a $20M job can be mismanaged by $3M.