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+---
+id: 2026-04-08T07:42:17-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-04-08 07:42:17
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-04-08T07:42:17-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-04-08]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-04-08 07:42:17
+
+[[hubbard_2025_project-management#Top-down Estimations Reference Class Forecasting]]
+
+If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias)
+then neither is project manager experience.
+
+***
+
+A **loss exceedance curve** can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty.
+Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods
+sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example.