45 lines
1.6 KiB
Markdown
45 lines
1.6 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: 2026-05-14T19:16:23-0400
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title: 2026-05-14 19:16:23
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tags: []
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daily: "[[2026-05-14]]"
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---
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# 2026-05-14 19:16:23
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After [[jared-defanti|Jared]] introduced me to
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[complex adaptive systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system)
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and [[2004_gribbin_deep-simplicity]]
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I told him about [[hubbard_2020_failure]]'s response
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to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]]'s main thesis:
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That Taleb's warning not to draw conclusions from historical data
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is itself a conclusion based on historical data.
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Even though I butchered the retelling
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Jared laughed out loud,
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the way I did when reading the response for the first time.
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In the absence of reputable sources,
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belief in Taleb's pessimistic view of forecasting
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requires one to _want_ for it to be true.
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I think my laughter was nervous,
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nervous that a position seemed so compelling
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until reframed only slightly,
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at which point it became ridiculous to consider.
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***
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I realize now that I totally misunderstood the direction Jared was going.
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The Google AI summary of _Deep Simplicity_ was this (emphasis added):
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> Deep Simplicity: Bringing Order to Chaos and Complexity by John Gribbin
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> explains chaos and complexity theory,
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> arguing that seemingly random, complex systems
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> (like weather or stock markets)
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> arise from simple, underlying laws,
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> _making the universe more orderly than it appears_.
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I skimmed the summary
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and misread the emphasized text
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as "making the universe appear more orderly than it is".
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I was primed to disagree because we had been talking about Taleb.
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It turns out Gribbin would disagree with Taleb too.
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