42 lines
1.2 KiB
Markdown
42 lines
1.2 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-03-20 11:05:34
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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- topic/estimating
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dg-publish: true
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date-created: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00
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daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W12]]"
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monthly: "[[2026-03]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-03-20 11:05:34
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## The Delphi Method
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> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method)
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> The Delphi method, or Delphi technique
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> (/ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy; also known as Estimate–Talk–Estimate, or ETE),
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> is a structured communication technique, or method,
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> originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method
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> that relies on a panel of experts.
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> [!quote]
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> The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.
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To my knowledge,
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neither [[hubbard_2020_failure]] nor [[hubbard_2025_project-management]]
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mention the Delphi method specifically,
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but they specifically warn against this premise.
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It ought to be permissible in conversation
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to submit potentially relevant factors,
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but arguments on the impact of those factors
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will quickly spoil the estimate.
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