103 lines
3.7 KiB
Markdown
103 lines
3.7 KiB
Markdown
---
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tags:
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- destiny/fleeting
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- status/draft
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- topic/estimating
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- topic/ergonomics/organizational
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- type/philosophy
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title: Estimating Culture
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---
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# Estimating Culture
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The nature of relationships between [[construction-estimating|estimators]]
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and between estimators and adjacent professions,
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is a difficult concept to navigate
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for an estimator who is purely interested in improving their skills.
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## Transparency
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Because of the [[purpose-of-construction-estimating#The Myth of Estimate Accuracy]],
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estimators are highly guarded of their personal processes,
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because detailed analysis of these processes
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would reveal that every one of us is a "bad" estimator.
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## Accountability
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Estimators have a reputation for causing problems others have to solve.
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Because of the nature of the bid process,
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estimators work on projects for a while,
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and then never look at them again until trouble arises.
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Because they are not expected to ever look at their work again,
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they have no incentive to reveal errors
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as they can simply plead ignorance if the error is discovered.
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## Incentives
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I strongly oppose any project-based incentive structure for estimators.
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Such a structure is at odds with the [[purpose-of-construction-estimating]],
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and is an example of a [[incentives#Perverse Incentive|perverse incentive]].
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This behavior should be regulated by an accompanying _disincentive_ structure,
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but equivalent punishment becomes unfeasible
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before monetary rewards become effective.
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The absolute worst disincentive an estimator faces is termination,
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which, with fully-remote options available, is only an inconvenience.
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The timeline to recognize an estimate was deliberately misrepresented
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is not much shorter than that of the project.
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Such incentives therefore create a [[game-theory|competitive game]]
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between the estimator and the employer
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where the employer is hopelessly outmatched,
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and the estimator's [[strategy#Strictly Dominant Strategy|strictly dominant strategy]]---
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resisted only by their [[personal-values]]---
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is to abuse the system: to bid fast, take the bag, lie often,
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and leave when people get too suspicious.
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## Collaboration
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Estimation is a profession ripe for productive collaboration.
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With intelligent work breakdown, jobs can be cleanly segmented for work in parallel.
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Estimators working in the same room can be an invaluable resource
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for brainstorming ideas and beneficial conversation.
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%%
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I wrote that last line before I left my previous position
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where I had a private office.
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%%
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It is the failure of estimating culture
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and of [[construction-estimating-software]]
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that so many estimators are wary of collaboration.
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The value of a second set of eyes can not be overstated.
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It can be impossible for one estimator to parse the work of another;
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the strategies enjoyed by some may seem counterintuitive to others.
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It is not practical to mandate a single methodology
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for all estimators of a nationwide company,
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nor is it wise to accept all methodologies as equally valid.
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Compromising, a small group of estimators with direct communication
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can be expected to develop and maintain a consistent methodology,
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such that any member can independently verify the work of another.
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This is best enforced with an expectation of collaboration on all projects,
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even those that could be done by one person.
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## Technicality
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In other industries, estimating is treated appropriately like a data science.
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In ours, [[intuition]] dominates decision making.
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%% TODO: %%
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[[estimator-calibration]]
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[[ai-in-estimating]]
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Making estimation more efficient and enjoyable
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requires a unified effort by estimators
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to embrace the statistical aspects of our field.
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* Be competent with every tool available to you.
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* Always assume there is a better way to complete a given task.
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