vault backup: 2026-04-09 10:52:03

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@@ -17,13 +17,27 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]"
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 # 2026-04-08 07:42:17

+## _HTMAiPM_ Reference Class Forecasting (RCF)
+
 [[hubbard_2025_project-management#Top-down Estimations Reference Class Forecasting]]

-If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias)
-then neither is project manager experience.
+%%
+blockquote syntax below is use to indicate paraphrased quotes.
+standard paragraphs are my extrapolation.
+%%

 ***

-A **loss exceedance curve** can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty.
-Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods
-sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example.
+RCF can avoid potentially faulty scaling
+(square foot area, number of dwelling/sleeping units)
+
+***
+
+> If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias)
+> then neither is project manager experience.
+
+***
+
+> A **loss exceedance curve** can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty.
+> Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods
+> sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example.