vault backup: 2026-03-03 14:58:23
This commit is contained in:
@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ $$
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where $\mathrm{Var}[C]$ is the [variance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance)
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and $\lambda>0$ is a risk-loading parameter.
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> This mirrors mean-variance pricing common in portfolio theory.
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> This mirrors mean-variance pricing common in [[modern-portfolio-theory]].
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## 3. Quantile-based pricing
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@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ Still deciding if I'm capable of being opinionated without rambling.
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* [[estimating-methodologies]]
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* [[construction-estimating-software]]
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* [[history-of-construction-estimating]]
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* [[labor-factoring]]
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* [[estimate-laboring]]
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### New Cross-Topics
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@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ For philosophy see [[bid-process-strategy]]
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* [[history-of-construction-estimating]]
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* [[estimating-methodologies]]
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* [[construction-estimating-software]]
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* [[labor-factoring]]
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* [[estimate-laboring]]
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### Cross-Topics
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@@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ Those around elevator shafts form a "shear core".
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> [!info] Reference
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> * [Concrete Slab | Different types of Slabs in Construction](https://www.constructioncost.co/slabs-in-construction.html)
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> * [Concrete Slab Types -- Construction, Cost, and Applications -- theconstructor.org](https://theconstructor.org/practical-guide/concrete-slab-construction-cost/28153/)
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> * [Concrete Slab Types -- Construction, Cost, and Applications | theconstructor.org](https://theconstructor.org/practical-guide/concrete-slab-construction-cost/28153/)
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### Conventional Slab
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@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ tags:
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/incomplete
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- type/guide
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- topic/hobbies/digitizing
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title: Converting Documents to Markdown
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dg-publish: true
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---
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+5
-2
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
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id:
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aliases: []
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- authorship/other-for-now
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/incomplete
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- topic/math
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@@ -12,7 +12,10 @@ dg-publish: true
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---
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# Convex Hull
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[Convex Hull](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_hull)
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> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_hull)
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> the **convex hull**, **convex envelope** or **convex closure** of a shape
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> is the smallest [convex set](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_set "Convex set")
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> that contains it.
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```tikz
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\usepackage{pgfplots}
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@@ -12,6 +12,8 @@ dg-publish: true
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# C\#
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C\# (read "C sharp", like the [[music-theory|musical]] symbol)
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is modern high-level [[programming-languages|language]]
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supporting [[object-oriented-programing|object-oriented]] patterns.
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It is the sane man's Java.
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@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ see [[complaints]] for how you can help me fix it.
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### Broken Links
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The private repository from which this site is built includes copyrighted materials,
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(which I own and have personally digitized, as is my right by case law)
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(which I own and have personally digitized, as is my right, supported by case law)
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of note, nearly the entirety of the [[nfpa-70_national-electric-code|NEC]],
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which [[conductor-sizing]] and [[alternating-current]] frequently reference.
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Because this website is public I choose not to publish those materials here,
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@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ much more so to dismiss the tests used to prove the validity of statistical meth
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### False Lucky Fools
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Taleb repeatedly conflates legitimate lucky fools
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Taleb repeatedly conflates legitimate [[lucky-fools|lucky fools]]
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and people with ideas he doesn't like.
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> [[hubbard_2020_failure]]
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@@ -133,12 +133,11 @@ One of many problems with this presentation
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is that John is described as young, inexperienced,
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and of low intelligence.
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John is a typical lucky fool:
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there is no indication that he has any strategy,
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much less that he is practicing modern portfolio theory.
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there is no indication that he has _any_ strategy,
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much less that he is practicing [[modern-portfolio-theory]].
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If I mistake Taleb's intent,
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and the story was only meant to convey
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that experienced, conscientious, and cautious decision-making
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_can_ lead a person to success,
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then I'm not sure who he's arguing against.
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+19
-7
@@ -22,6 +22,15 @@ With that heuristic,
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one can closely approximate small dimensions,
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even without the proper tools.
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It is tempting to believe that heuristics are not ideal,
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that the most accurate method ought to be preferred.
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%%
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even using a ruler is a heuristic,
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subject to the tool's tolerance
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and reliant on its proper use.
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%%
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## Realism vs. Instrumentalism
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Realism holds that the purpose of [scientific research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research)
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@@ -29,6 +38,16 @@ is to describe the world as accurately as possible.
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Instrumentalism (anti-realism) argues that the purpose
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is to _forecast as accurately as possible_.
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> [!quote] _Opinionated History of Mathematics_, "Did Copernicus steal ideas from Islamic astronomers?" (pp.)
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> Ptolemy's lunar model is "flawed"
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> in that it inaccurately describes Luna's distance from Earth,
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> however Ptolemy only ever used the model to predict eclipses,
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> which the model does very well.
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> The discrepancy is only a flaw from a realist perspective.
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Realism is noble, granted,
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but instrumentalism is far more practical.
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> [!quote] George E. P. Box, British statistician
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> All models are wrong, but some are useful.[^1]
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@@ -37,10 +56,3 @@ is to _forecast as accurately as possible_.
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> does not necessarily detract from its usefulness
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> because all models are approximations.
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> Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.
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> [!quote] _Opinionated History of Mathematics_, "Did Copernicus steal ideas from Islamic astronomers?" (pp.)
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> Ptolemy's lunar model is "flawed"
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> in that it inaccurately describes Luna's distance from Earth,
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> however Ptolemy only ever used the model to predict eclipses,
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> which the model does very well.
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> The discrepancy is only a flaw from a realist perspective.
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@@ -158,14 +158,16 @@ He wrote *The Black Swan* and other books critical of common practice in risk ma
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especially in (but not limited to) the financial world,
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as well as the nonquantitative hubris of Wall Street.
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A heretic of financial convention, he argues that Nobel Prize---
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winning modern portfolio theory and options theory (briefly mentioned in chapter 5)
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A heretic of financial convention,
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he argues that Nobel Prize-winning modern portfolio theory and options theory
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(briefly mentioned in chapter 5)
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are fundamentally flawed and are in fact no better than astrology.
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In fact, Taleb considers this prize is itself an intellectual fraud.
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After all, as he rightly points out, it was not established in the will of Alfred Nobel,
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After all, as he rightly points out,
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it was not established in the will of Alfred Nobel,
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but by the Royal Bank of Sweden seventy-five years after Nobel's death.
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He even claims that once, in a public forum, he riled up one such prizewinner
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to the point of red-faced, fist-pounding anger.
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He even claims that once, in a public forum,
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he riled up one such prizewinner to the point of red-faced, fist-pounding anger.
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Taleb bases a lot of his thesis on the fact that the impact of chance
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is unappreciated by mostly everyone.
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@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ familiarity requires maintenance.
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## TALK
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Expertise as heuristics and biases
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[Daniel Kahneman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman)
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Expertise as [[heuristics]] and biases
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[[kahneman_2011_thinking]]
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%%
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@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
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---
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id:
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aliases: []
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title: Lucky Fools
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/incomplete
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---
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# Lucky Fools
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A lucky fool is someone who stumbled into success
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in a field where competence is normally prerequisite.
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%%
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Books concerned with lucky fools:
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[[hubbard_2020_failure]]
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[[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]]
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[[kahneman_2011_thinking]]
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%%
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@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
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---
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id:
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aliases: []
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title: Modern Portfolio Theory
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tags:
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- authorship/other-for-now
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/not-started
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---
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# Modern Portfolio Theory
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> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory)
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> Modern portfolio theory (MPT), or mean-variance analysis,
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> is a mathematical framework for assembling a portfolio of assets
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> such that the expected return is maximized for a given level of risk.
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@@ -36,4 +36,4 @@ Solves database conflicts by pinning estimates to a commit.
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* [[breakdown-objects]]
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* [[assembly-objects]]
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* [[labor-factoring]]
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* [[estimate-laboring]]
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@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ especially with [Obsidian](https://www.google.com/search?q=getting+started+with+
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Note that PKM gets a lot of hype from productivity influencers
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so you may leave some of those videos feeling like you need to pick up bouldering.
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It speaks to the highly personal nature of PKM that of these hundreds
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It speaks to the highly personal nature of PKM that, of these hundreds,
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there is no consensus larger than two on best practice.
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## See Also
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+2
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* fitness goals
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* preference for ice cream relative to other desert options
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* natural tendency to form unhealthy habits
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among many others.
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among many other factors.
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For an individual who strongly values their health and physical fitness,
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the knowledge that they would be acting in violation of those values
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@@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ skews the calculation so far to the negative
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that internal debate is unnecessary.
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Frequently, individuals are capable of effectively rationalizing their values
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(it's not difficult to imagine that all variables considered,
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(it's not difficult to imagine that, all variables considered,
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the objective utility of the additional ice cream is negative for most people).
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In this way they are behavioral [[heuristics]]:
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subjective utility
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@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for.
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%% TODO: %%
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Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
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Experts tend to be good at creating [[heuristics]],
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but do not apply them consistently in practice.
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> [!example]
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@@ -122,6 +122,8 @@ This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**
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> there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
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> _by luck alone_.
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That is, there is a 30% chance The Red Baron was a [[lucky-fools|lucky fool]]
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He later refers to the popular tendency
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to overvalue competence and undervalue luck
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in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
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@@ -168,7 +170,7 @@ For risk-neutral parties, expected value would equal CME
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***
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Another factor at play here
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is that utility is not proportional to monetary value.
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is that [[utility]] is not proportional to monetary value.
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Consider these additional choices:
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@@ -1,11 +1,12 @@
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---
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id:
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aliases: []
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title:
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title: The Henry Tower Two
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/not-started
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- occupational/project
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- status/not-started
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dg-publish: true
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---
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---
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# The Henry Tower Two
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+1
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## Conventions
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### Semantic Line Breaks
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### Text Wrapping
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I didn't like them at first,
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but this notebook uses [[semantic-line-breaks]]
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@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ it is not cost-effective[^1] to allow it to take four.[^2]
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[^1]: "Cost" referring both to estimator salaries and the opportunity cost of declined bids.
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[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a modern portfolio theory styled record of estimates
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[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a [[modern-portfolio-theory]] styled record of estimates
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including pending bids, and projects ongoing and completed
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(each with confidence estimates),
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uncorrupted by [[estimating-culture#Incentives|perverse incentives]],
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@@ -71,12 +71,12 @@ What's being done to prevent it from re-emerging?
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It is my belief that the most practical solution
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is the frequent rotation of estimators in senior teams.
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It is in the interest of estimators
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that their personal heuristics not depend on who they're working for,
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that their personal [[heuristics]] not depend on who they're working for,
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so they can be expected to call attention to inconsistency
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allowing it to be addressed permanently.
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The only other option I can imagine
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is to document exact procedures for every scenario,
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is to document _exact_ procedures for _every_ scenario,
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which is obviously foolhardy.
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### Less Important
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+9
-2
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# Utility
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[Utility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility)
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is a measure of a party's satisfaction
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is a measure of a party's **satisfaction**
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with a certain state of the world.
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The measure is intended to account for unintuitive quirks of human perception of value.
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A rich man is not as satisfied with receiving one dollar as a poor man,
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A rich man is not as _satisfied_ by receiving one dollar as a poor man would be,
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therefore the utility of the dollar is contextual, not objective.
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[Sorites paradox in utility theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorites_paradox#Resolutions_in_utility_theory)
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## Normative and Descriptive Utility
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**Normative utility** is utility as self-reported,
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subject to the biases of the party.
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**Descriptive utility** is utility as determined from the party's behavior.
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@@ -1,11 +1,12 @@
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---
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id:
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aliases: []
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title:
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title: Vanderbilt Central Neighborhood Residential College
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/not-started
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- occupational/project
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- status/not-started
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dg-publish: true
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---
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---
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# Vanderbilt Central Neighborhood Residential College
|
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Reference in New Issue
Block a user