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Zane Meyers
2026-03-03 14:58:23 -05:00
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fooled-by-randomness.md
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@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ much more so to dismiss the tests used to prove the validity of statistical meth
### False Lucky Fools
Taleb repeatedly conflates legitimate lucky fools
Taleb repeatedly conflates legitimate [[lucky-fools|lucky fools]]
and people with ideas he doesn't like.
> [[hubbard_2020_failure]]
@@ -133,12 +133,11 @@ One of many problems with this presentation
is that John is described as young, inexperienced,
and of low intelligence.
John is a typical lucky fool:
there is no indication that he has any strategy,
much less that he is practicing modern portfolio theory.
there is no indication that he has _any_ strategy,
much less that he is practicing [[modern-portfolio-theory]].
If I mistake Taleb's intent,
and the story was only meant to convey
that experienced, conscientious, and cautious decision-making
_can_ lead a person to success,
then I'm not sure who he's arguing against.