vault backup: 2026-03-03 14:58:23

the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for.
 
 %% TODO: %%
 
-Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
+Experts tend to be good at creating [[heuristics]],
 but do not apply them consistently in practice.
 
 > [!example]
@@ -122,6 +122,8 @@ This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**
 > there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
 > _by luck alone_.
 
+That is, there is a 30% chance The Red Baron was a [[lucky-fools|lucky fool]]
+
 He later refers to the popular tendency
 to overvalue competence and undervalue luck
 in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
@@ -168,7 +170,7 @@ For risk-neutral parties, expected value would equal CME
 ***
 
 Another factor at play here
-is that utility is not proportional to monetary value.
+is that [[utility]] is not proportional to monetary value.
 
 Consider these additional choices: