vault backup: 2026-03-03 14:58:23

bid-price-modeling.md

@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ $$
 where $\mathrm{Var}[C]$ is the [variance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance)
 and $\lambda>0$ is a risk-loading parameter.
 
-> This mirrors mean-variance pricing common in portfolio theory.
+> This mirrors mean-variance pricing common in [[modern-portfolio-theory]].
 
 ## 3. Quantile-based pricing
 

consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md

@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ Still deciding if I'm capable of being opinionated without rambling.
 * [[estimating-methodologies]]
 * [[construction-estimating-software]]
 * [[history-of-construction-estimating]]
-* [[labor-factoring]]
+* [[estimate-laboring]]
 
 ### New Cross-Topics
 

construction-estimating.md

@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ For philosophy see [[bid-process-strategy]]
 * [[history-of-construction-estimating]]
 * [[estimating-methodologies]]
 * [[construction-estimating-software]]
-* [[labor-factoring]]
+* [[estimate-laboring]]
 
 ### Cross-Topics
 

construction-methods.md

@@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ Those around elevator shafts form a "shear core".
 
 > [!info] Reference
 > * [Concrete Slab | Different types of Slabs in Construction](https://www.constructioncost.co/slabs-in-construction.html)
-> * [Concrete Slab Types -- Construction, Cost, and Applications -- theconstructor.org](https://theconstructor.org/practical-guide/concrete-slab-construction-cost/28153/)
+> * [Concrete Slab Types -- Construction, Cost, and Applications | theconstructor.org](https://theconstructor.org/practical-guide/concrete-slab-construction-cost/28153/)
 
 ### Conventional Slab
 

converting-documents-to-markdown.md

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ tags:
   - destiny/permanent
   - status/incomplete
   - type/guide
+  - topic/hobbies/digitizing
 title: Converting Documents to Markdown
 dg-publish: true
 ---

convex-hull.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 id:
 aliases: []
 tags:
-  - authorship/original
+  - authorship/other-for-now
   - destiny/permanent
   - status/incomplete
   - topic/math
@@ -12,7 +12,10 @@ dg-publish: true
 ---
 # Convex Hull
 
-[Convex Hull](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_hull)
+> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_hull)
+> the **convex hull**, **convex envelope** or **convex closure** of a shape
+> is the smallest [convex set](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_set "Convex set")
+> that contains it.
 
 ```tikz
 \usepackage{pgfplots}

csharp.md

@@ -12,6 +12,8 @@ dg-publish: true
 # C\#
 
 C\# (read "C sharp", like the [[music-theory|musical]] symbol)
+is modern high-level [[programming-languages|language]]
+supporting [[object-oriented-programing|object-oriented]] patterns.
 
 It is the sane man's Java.
 

digital-garden-homepage.md

@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ see [[complaints]] for how you can help me fix it.
 ### Broken Links
 
 The private repository from which this site is built includes copyrighted materials,
-(which I own and have personally digitized, as is my right by case law)
+(which I own and have personally digitized, as is my right, supported by case law)
 of note, nearly the entirety of the [[nfpa-70_national-electric-code|NEC]],
 which [[conductor-sizing]] and [[alternating-current]] frequently reference.
 Because this website is public I choose not to publish those materials here,

fooled-by-randomness.md

@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ much more so to dismiss the tests used to prove the validity of statistical meth
 
 ### False Lucky Fools
 
-Taleb repeatedly conflates legitimate lucky fools
+Taleb repeatedly conflates legitimate [[lucky-fools|lucky fools]]
 and people with ideas he doesn't like.
 
 > [[hubbard_2020_failure]]
@@ -133,12 +133,11 @@ One of many problems with this presentation
 is that John is described as young, inexperienced,
 and of low intelligence.
 John is a typical lucky fool:
-there is no indication that he has any strategy,
+there is no indication that he has _any_ strategy,
-much less that he is practicing modern portfolio theory.
+much less that he is practicing [[modern-portfolio-theory]].
 
 If I mistake Taleb's intent,
 and the story was only meant to convey
 that experienced, conscientious, and cautious decision-making
 _can_ lead a person to success,
 then I'm not sure who he's arguing against.
-

heuristics.md

@@ -22,6 +22,15 @@ With that heuristic,
 one can closely approximate small dimensions,
 even without the proper tools.
 
+It is tempting to believe that heuristics are not ideal,
+that the most accurate method ought to be preferred.
+
+%%
+even using a ruler is a heuristic,
+subject to the tool's tolerance
+and reliant on its proper use.
+%%
+
 ## Realism vs. Instrumentalism
 
 Realism holds that the purpose of [scientific research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research)
@@ -29,6 +38,16 @@ is to describe the world as accurately as possible.
 Instrumentalism (anti-realism) argues that the purpose
 is to _forecast as accurately as possible_.
 
+> [!quote] _Opinionated History of Mathematics_, "Did Copernicus steal ideas from Islamic astronomers?" (pp.)
+> Ptolemy's lunar model is "flawed"
+> in that it inaccurately describes Luna's distance from Earth,
+> however Ptolemy only ever used the model to predict eclipses,
+> which the model does very well.
+> The discrepancy is only a flaw from a realist perspective.
+
+Realism is noble, granted,
+but instrumentalism is far more practical.
+
 > [!quote] George E. P. Box, British statistician
 > All models are wrong, but some are useful.[^1]
 
@@ -37,10 +56,3 @@ is to _forecast as accurately as possible_.
     > does not necessarily detract from its usefulness
     > because all models are approximations.
     > Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.
-
-> [!quote] _Opinionated History of Mathematics_, "Did Copernicus steal ideas from Islamic astronomers?" (pp.)
-> Ptolemy's lunar model is "flawed"
-> in that it inaccurately describes Luna's distance from Earth,
-> however Ptolemy only ever used the model to predict eclipses,
-> which the model does very well.
-> The discrepancy is only a flaw from a realist perspective.

hubbard_2020_failure.md

@@ -158,14 +158,16 @@ He wrote *The Black Swan* and other books critical of common practice in risk ma
 especially in (but not limited to) the financial world,
 as well as the nonquantitative hubris of Wall Street.
 
-A heretic of financial convention, he argues that Nobel Prize---
+A heretic of financial convention,
-winning modern portfolio theory and options theory (briefly mentioned in chapter 5)
+he argues that Nobel Prize-winning modern portfolio theory and options theory
+(briefly mentioned in chapter 5)
 are fundamentally flawed and are in fact no better than astrology.
 In fact, Taleb considers this prize is itself an intellectual fraud.
-After all, as he rightly points out, it was not established in the will of Alfred Nobel,
+After all, as he rightly points out,
+it was not established in the will of Alfred Nobel,
 but by the Royal Bank of Sweden seventy-five years after Nobel's death.
-He even claims that once, in a public forum, he riled up one such prizewinner
+He even claims that once, in a public forum,
-to the point of red-faced, fist-pounding anger.
+he riled up one such prizewinner to the point of red-faced, fist-pounding anger.
 
 Taleb bases a lot of his thesis on the fact that the impact of chance
 is unappreciated by mostly everyone.

individual-ability.md

@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ familiarity requires maintenance.
 
 ## TALK
 
-Expertise as heuristics and biases
+Expertise as [[heuristics]] and biases
-[Daniel Kahneman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman)
+[[kahneman_2011_thinking]]
 
 %%

lucky-fools.md

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+title: Lucky Fools
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/incomplete
+---
+# Lucky Fools
+
+A lucky fool is someone who stumbled into success
+in a field where competence is normally prerequisite.
+
+%%
+Books concerned with lucky fools:
+[[hubbard_2020_failure]]
+[[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]]
+[[kahneman_2011_thinking]]
+%%

modern-portfolio-theory.md

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+title: Modern Portfolio Theory
+tags:
+  - authorship/other-for-now
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/not-started
+---
+# Modern Portfolio Theory
+
+> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory)
+> Modern portfolio theory (MPT), or mean-variance analysis,
+> is a mathematical framework for assembling a portfolio of assets
+> such that the expected return is maximized for a given level of risk.

object-oriented-programing-for-construction-estimating.md

@@ -36,4 +36,4 @@ Solves database conflicts by pinning estimates to a commit.
 
 * [[breakdown-objects]]
 * [[assembly-objects]]
-* [[labor-factoring]]
+* [[estimate-laboring]]

personal-knowledge-management.md

@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ especially with [Obsidian](https://www.google.com/search?q=getting+started+with+
 Note that PKM gets a lot of hype from productivity influencers
 so you may leave some of those videos feeling like you need to pick up bouldering.
 
-It speaks to the highly personal nature of PKM that of these hundreds
+It speaks to the highly personal nature of PKM that, of these hundreds,
 there is no consensus larger than two on best practice.
 
 ## See Also

personal-values.md

@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ requires a thorough understanding and accurate quantization of their
 * fitness goals
 * preference for ice cream relative to other desert options
 * natural tendency to form unhealthy habits
-among many others.
+among many other factors.
 
 For an individual who strongly values their health and physical fitness,
 the knowledge that they would be acting in violation of those values
@@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ skews the calculation so far to the negative
 that internal debate is unnecessary.
 
 Frequently, individuals are capable of effectively rationalizing their values
-(it's not difficult to imagine that all variables considered,
+(it's not difficult to imagine that, all variables considered,
 the objective utility of the additional ice cream is negative for most people).
 In this way they are behavioral [[heuristics]]:
 subjective utility

the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for.
 
 %% TODO: %%
 
-Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics,
+Experts tend to be good at creating [[heuristics]],
 but do not apply them consistently in practice.
 
 > [!example]
@@ -122,6 +122,8 @@ This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**
 > there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
 > _by luck alone_.
 
+That is, there is a 30% chance The Red Baron was a [[lucky-fools|lucky fool]]
+
 He later refers to the popular tendency
 to overvalue competence and undervalue luck
 in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
@@ -168,7 +170,7 @@ For risk-neutral parties, expected value would equal CME
 ***
 
 Another factor at play here
-is that utility is not proportional to monetary value.
+is that [[utility]] is not proportional to monetary value.
 
 Consider these additional choices:
 

the-henry-tower-two.md

@@ -1,11 +1,12 @@
 ---
 id:
 aliases: []
-title:
+title: The Henry Tower Two
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - status/not-started
   - occupational/project
+  - status/not-started
 dg-publish: true
----
+---
+# The Henry Tower Two

this-notebook.md

@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ My response is simply that it's fun to write like this.
 
 ## Conventions
 
-### Semantic Line Breaks
+### Text Wrapping
 
 I didn't like them at first,
 but this notebook uses [[semantic-line-breaks]]

timestamped/2026-01-11_11-00-00.md

@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ it is not cost-effective[^1] to allow it to take four.[^2]
 
 [^1]: "Cost" referring both to estimator salaries and the opportunity cost of declined bids.
 
-[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a modern portfolio theory styled record of estimates
+[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a [[modern-portfolio-theory]] styled record of estimates
     including pending bids, and projects ongoing and completed
     (each with confidence estimates),
     uncorrupted by [[estimating-culture#Incentives|perverse incentives]],

timestamped/2026-02-04_08-07-00.md

@@ -71,12 +71,12 @@ What's being done to prevent it from re-emerging?
 It is my belief that the most practical solution
 is the frequent rotation of estimators in senior teams.
 It is in the interest of estimators
-that their personal heuristics not depend on who they're working for,
+that their personal [[heuristics]] not depend on who they're working for,
 so they can be expected to call attention to inconsistency
 allowing it to be addressed permanently.
 
 The only other option I can imagine
-is to document exact procedures for every scenario,
+is to document _exact_ procedures for _every_ scenario,
 which is obviously foolhardy.
 
 ### Less Important

utility.md

@@ -13,11 +13,18 @@ dg-publish: true
 # Utility
 
 [Utility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility)
-is a measure of a party's satisfaction
+is a measure of a party's **satisfaction**
 with a certain state of the world.
 
 The measure is intended to account for unintuitive quirks of human perception of value.
-A rich man is not as satisfied with receiving one dollar as a poor man,
+A rich man is not as _satisfied_ by receiving one dollar as a poor man would be,
 therefore the utility of the dollar is contextual, not objective.
 
 [Sorites paradox in utility theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorites_paradox#Resolutions_in_utility_theory)
+
+## Normative and Descriptive Utility
+
+**Normative utility** is utility as self-reported,
+subject to the biases of the party.
+
+**Descriptive utility** is utility as determined from the party's behavior.

vanderbilt-central-neighborhood-residential-college.md

@@ -1,11 +1,12 @@
 ---
 id:
 aliases: []
-title:
+title: Vanderbilt Central Neighborhood Residential College
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - status/not-started
   - occupational/project
+  - status/not-started
 dg-publish: true
----
+---
+# Vanderbilt Central Neighborhood Residential College