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+---
+id: 2026-05-14T19:16:23-0400
+title: 2026-05-14 19:16:23
+tags: []
+daily: "[[2026-05-14]]"
+---
+# 2026-05-14 19:16:23 
+
+After [[jared-defanti|Jared]] introduced me to
+[complex adaptive systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system)
+and [[2004_gribbin_deep-simplicity]]
+I told him about [[hubbard_2020_failure]]'s response
+to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]]'s main thesis:
+That Taleb's warning not to draw conclusions from historical data
+is itself a conclusion based on historical data.
+Even though I butchered the retelling
+Jared laughed out loud,
+the way I did when reading the response for the first time.
+
+In the absence of reputable sources,
+belief in Taleb's pessimistic view of forecasting
+requires one to _want_ for it to be true.
+I think my laughter was nervous,
+nervous that a position seemed so compelling
+until reframed only slightly,
+at which point it became ridiculous to consider.
+
+***
+
+I realize now that I totally misunderstood the direction Jared was going.
+The Google AI summary of _Deep Simplicity_ was this (emphasis added):
+
+> Deep Simplicity: Bringing Order to Chaos and Complexity by John Gribbin
+> explains chaos and complexity theory,
+> arguing that seemingly random, complex systems
+> (like weather or stock markets)
+> arise from simple, underlying laws,
+> _making the universe more orderly than it appears_.
+
+I skimmed the summary
+and misread the emphasized text
+as "making the universe appear more orderly than it is".
+I was primed to disagree because we had been talking about Taleb.
+It turns out Gribbin would disagree with Taleb too.