1.7 KiB
id, aliases, tags
| id | aliases | tags |
|---|---|---|
| risk-oriented-estimating |
Risk Oriented Estimating
Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE), is a methodology for construction-estimating which
- prioritizes estimating tasks,
- determines necessary estimating-detail
ROE leans heavily on perfect-information, which challenges the natural tendency to shy from uncertainty with the reality of the cost of certainty.
ROE does not endorse common shortcuts that round up to "cover" uncertainty, as these ultimately increase risk by inflating the apparent project cost, increasing the probability of loss to a competitor.
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Scratch
Bid risk may fit a Taleb distribution.
Actuarial Science
Estimating as risk mitigation, resources allocated by Return on Mitigation (RoM)
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Prioritizing Tasks
ROE prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to cost certainty.
Determining Necessary Detail
ROE determines the appropriate level of estimating-detail given an organization's risk#Risk Tolerance.
EVPI Takeoff
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Scratch
Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
Count-based takeoff speed increases with count. %%
Optimizing the takeoff process means:
- Minimizing the need for information outside of drawings
- Maximizing organizational consistency
Note
Recent events have complicated my philosophy above. It appears that similar efforts have already been made here, their success being a matter of perspective.
[!note] Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description) Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience, but has the side effect that those accustomed to the names will inevitably treat them as descriptive.