50 lines
1.6 KiB
Markdown
50 lines
1.6 KiB
Markdown
---
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id:
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aliases: []
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title: _Fooled by Randomness_
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/complete
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- topic/risk
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- type/media-commentary
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---
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# _Fooled by Randomness_
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This is the commentary companion to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]].
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## Critiques
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### "Logic Without Statistics"
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FbR uses few citations,
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relying on the strength of Taleb's logic alone, by his own stating.
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Taleb argues this strategy is perfectly legitimate, which is _true_,
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but it does not follow that it makes for the most robust argument.
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In recent editions of the text, Taleb claims that his editors have implored him
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to provide figures, graphs, studies, etc. as---_he agrees_---would be expected
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for any similar book on statistical phenomena, but he refuses.
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I don't find this approach charming at all,
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especially considering how critical Taleb is of demagogues.
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Juxtaposing FbR with [[hubbard_2020_failure]],
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which is a more traditional work of statistical thought,
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well researched, and with a thorough bibliography,
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Taleb's arguments are considerably less satisfying.
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When Hubbard is wrong, it's clear his interpretation is flawed in that instance,
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when _Taleb_ is wrong, I question the foundation of all his arguments.
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Less politely, I wonder why I'm listening to him just make up justifications
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for what he already believed.
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### Qualitative Probability
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Taleb loses me in the introduction
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when he states that he defines _probability_ qualitatively.
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[[hubbard_2020_failure]] gives a comprehensive history
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of the terms **uncertainty**, **probability**, and **risk**,
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Later it's clear he what he means by probability is **uncertainty**.
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