38 lines
1.2 KiB
Markdown
38 lines
1.2 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: 2026-04-07T07:21:00-04:00
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aliases: []
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title: 2026-04-07 07:21:00
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tags:
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- authorship/original
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- destiny/permanent
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- status/draft
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- type/periodic/timestamped
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daily: "[[2026-04-07]]"
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date-created: 2026-04-07T07:21:00-04:00
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dg-publish: true
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monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
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quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
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weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
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yearly: "[[2026]]"
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---
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# 2026-04-07 07:21:00
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> [!quote] [[how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management#Conflating Uncertainty with Knowing Nothing]]
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> Some objections to providing probability estimates
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> seem to be based on the presumption
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> that if they don't know something exactly, they know nothing.
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> For example, a person might state something like,
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> "I cannot estimate a 90% CI for that because I have no idea what that could be."
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> They respond as if someone were still asking for some unreasonable precision
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> as opposed to whatever range represents their uncertainty,
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> however wide that range may be.
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Hubbard repeatedly conflates estimates of uncertain events
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with personal estimates of trivia questions with certain answers.
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These are functionally identical,
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but _feel_ very different.
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Hubbard could do better to correct this bias.
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If you don't know the answer offhand,
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imagine it has been lost to time.
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